NIGERIA ON THE PATH TO ECONOMIC RECOVERY: 2nd Quarter 2024 GDP Growth Exceeds Expectations

The Nigerian economy is on the rise, with gross domestic product (GDP) growing by 3.19% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2024.

According to a report by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), this growth was mainly driven by the services sector, which grew by 3.79% and contributed almost 59% to GDP.

In contrast, the agriculture sector recorded a slight decline of 1.41%, while the industrial sector recovered from its previous drop with a growth of 3.53%.

Overall, nominal GDP reached 60.93 trillion naira, up 16.94 percent year-on-year.

GDP grew by 3.19% real (year-on-year) in the second quarter of 2024. This growth rate is higher than the 2.51 percent growth in the second quarter of 2023 and the 2.98 percent growth in the first quarter of 2024.

Total GDP at constant prices for the quarter was nominal 60.93 trillion naira, which recorded a total GDP of 52.103 trillion naira, a nominal growth of 16.94 percent year-on-year. This was stated in new data released yesterday by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Real GDP for the second quarter, adjusted for inflation, is 18.29 trillion naira.

GDP development in the second quarter of 2024 was mainly driven by the services sector, which recorded a growth of 3.79 percent and contributed 58.76 percent to the total GDP. The agriculture sector grew by 1.41 percent compared to 1.50 percent growth in the second quarter of 2023.

The growth rate of the industrial sector was 3.53 percent, improving from -1.94 percent in the second quarter of 2023. In terms of their share of GDP, the industrial and service sectors contributed more to the total GDP in the second quarter of 2024 compared to the corresponding quarter of 2023.

The real growth rate of the oil sector in the second quarter of 2024 was 10.15% (year-on-year), an increase of 23.58% from the growth rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2023 (-13.43%). The growth rate increased by 4.45 percentage points compared to 5.70% in the first quarter of 2024. On a quarterly basis, the oil sector recorded a growth rate of minus 10.51 percent in the second quarter of 2024.

The oil sector’s contribution to total real GDP in the second quarter of 2024 was 5.70 percent, which is higher than the same period in 2023, but less than the contributions of 5.34 percent and 6.38 percent in the previous quarter, respectively.

The non-oil sector grew by 2.80 percent in real terms in the reference quarter (2nd quarter of 2024). This rate was 0.78 percentage points lower than the 3.58 percent recorded in the same quarter of 2023 and relatively comparable to the 2.80 percent recorded in the first quarter of 2024.

In the second quarter of 2024, the sector was dominated by finance and insurance (financial institutions); information and communications (telecommunications); agriculture (crop production); trade; and manufacturing (food, beverages, and tobacco), which were responsible for the positive growth of GDP. The agriculture sector grew nominally by 2.86 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2024, registering a decrease of 8.57 percentage points compared to the same quarter of 2023. This was an increase of 2.09 percentage points compared to the previous quarter’s growth rate of 0.77 percent.